A quick look across the markets this morning sees the the US$ lagging, selling against the Swiss franc as I type, and generally looking weak as the Euro and Sterling push ahead. Aussie is looking the more bullish of the Commoditiy Trio, more so against the Kiwi than the Loonie: the recent hourly candles look very indecisive on AUDCAD while AUDNZD has convincingly broken out to the upside from the short term range.. The Yen is holding against the US$ but losing out in the crosses. Indices were looking positive but are coming off a little as I type.
A close above 1.0258 would be a continuation of this bullish trend for me targetting the broken trendline and key resistance at 1.03492. (A break lower through 1.0206 would target the 55dma). I will be watching the AUDUSD for a break of 0.93 and to see if the USDCAD can break the cap of the 55dma as well.
Not doing much right now and generally has little clear direction. If anything I am looking to the downside, bearish ema cross over on H4 and a rounded minor top but am waiting for a convincing break of 102 as there is a lot of tech support. Failure to breask the 50% Fib (see chart) would imply a return to the lows around 101.32. The mover this morning is EURJPY which can be a monster once it gets an appetite…. the current hourly candle is up 35 pips already and pushing against interim resistance before the the 61.8Fib of the Jan/Feb move down. The wedge is also running out of space so any US$ weakness that comes over as Euro strength could well see some proper pips.
Considering the mass of data coming out this week be careful trading…. do some research on these figures so you know what is expected. Trading volumes may well be even lower given the wait and see attitude of the markets, at least in Forex, up until the action on the release of data.