Morning Update – 07/03/2016 by Michela Jaccarini

Good morning all,

The financial markets have recently been reversing slightly. Most notably, oil which on the 11th of February hit a low price of 26 has reversed and is currently trading at 36.38.

Last Friday there was also the issuance of the Non Farm Payroll figure for the United States. Job creation for the month of January was expected at 190K but came out as 242K, a strong figure for the US economy. This figure could give an indication of the Fed’s next move however it will also depend on other important economic figures.

This week all eyes will be on ECB President Mario Draghi where an interest rate movement decision will be decided upon followed by a press conference by the President himself where he will give insight into the current European economy and ways to improve it. Traders are pricing in an 84% chance that the ECB will cut the deposit rate to -0.4% and a 16% chance it will be cut to -0.5% as well as additional QE being on the agenda. Draghi has in the past however disappointed market expectations in previous meetings so all eyes will be directed on him this Thursday to see if expectations have been met.

Important market data to look out for this week:

Monday:
– JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

Tuesday:
– CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Feb)
– GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Wednesday:
– GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan)
– CAD Interest Rate Decision
– USD Crude Oil Inventories
– NZD Interest Rate Decision

Thursday:
– CNY CPI (YoY) (Feb)
– Deposit Facility Rate
– Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
– CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Friday:
– CAD Employment Change (Feb)

Good luck!