Kiwi….. proving to be flightless.

April 16, 2014 by

Good morning,

Overnight saw cheaper milk for your cornflakes in NZ (if only it worked like that!) but that did not do the Kiwi any good, especially in the face of the Aussie forgetting gold and copper worries with (marginally) positive data out of China….. although the Westpac data was not encouraging but also not inflationary. The AUDNZD is currently atop the blue band I posted yesterday at 1.0897. The Aussie is struggling to prove itself in the crosses while the Kiwi is pinned down in pullbacks or at least pull-flats, I see a bit more downside here for the Kiwi…. any show of strength form the majors today could have the Kiwi running for cover. This may well depend on Ukraine: the markets seem to have priced in ‘blood in the streets’ quite literally as US treasuries have returned to the 55hma and the mid-range at 134.56 with gold just pushing back through 1300 from the lows at 1293 as I type, while USDJPY benefitted from a 3% improvement on the NIkkei overnight to fill orders above 102 where it is now bouncing along at 102.23. On the Yen, it appears that Abe did not push for more easing over sushi with Kuroda but for a downgrade of the economic assessment….. well, to be honest, I’m not sure what they discussed but the downgrade would be the first since November 2012 which would be a big deal and its due tomorrow! This should be the cause for the Nikkei rally and the weaker Yen.

…. and keep an eye on housing related data as there seems to be a lot of talk about this sector right now and feel free to email us for more info.

I am looking to trade the risk sentiment with consideration for data given Sterling, Euro, Cad and US$ being drip fed to us today and am looking for intra-day positions given the approaching Easter break (and Putin probably trying to justify more intervention by claiming that his Easter egg treasure map leads him to Kiev). To check the economic calendar…