Morning Update – 08/03/16 – by Arjun Lakhanpal

March 8, 2016 by

Morning all. A rather cautious session on Wall St finally saw the S&P close up 1.77% and above 2000 as oil rallied again along with iron ore and many commodities. Asia had less of a session as data hindered any hopes of gains with Nikkei closing down o.76%, HK down 0.6% and China at present unchanged even after some dreadful trade data which showed exports falling steeply yet again. China Feb exports fell much faster than exp (-25.4% vs -14.5% cons); imports also below exp (-13.8% vs -12% consensus). In Japan we saw Japan Qq4 GDP (Final) beat; -0.3% vs -0.4% cons but USDJPY lower on the fall in the Nikkei.. Oil is lower with WTI at $37.46 down 1.16% and US yields fell in Asia with 10yr yields sitting at 1.87%. Iron Ore has been one of the most impressive performing commodities this year and with yesterday’s move is now up 46% YTD so far as well as a massive 66% from the record lows made back on December 11th last year. Much of the commentary suggested yesterday’s move reflected to some degree a replenishing of Chinese steel mills supplies ahead of the ramping up of the summer construction season, as well as aggressive moves in Steel prices in expectation of demand recovery triggered by property policies and also abundant liquidity in the system. AUD fell into the close of NY and extended losses in Asia..  Fed Vice-Chair Fischer played down the suggestion that the link between strong employment and inflation was broken, saying that although the link has never been very strong, ‘it exists and we may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate’. Even so the dollar remained weak.. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we get French Trade data, Spanish IP and EU GDP for Q4.. Good luck..