Morning Update – 09/05/16 – by Arjun Lakhanpal

Morning all.. Wall St had a decent close after poor Non-farm payroll data with the S&P closing up 0.32% and Asia is higher also with the Nikkei up 0.76% but China lower after poor trade data. In US Dollar terms exports were reported as declining -1.8% yoy last month (vs. 0.0% expected) from +11.5% in March. That said, a sharper than expected fall in imports (-10.9% yoy vs. -4.0% expected; -7.6% previously) has resulted in the trade surplus increasing. In CNY terms exports were reported as increasing close to that expected by the market (+4.1% yoy vs. +4.3% expected).. It’s always a relatively quiet week after payrolls but the debate over Friday’s employment report will continue to rumble on with the 160k number below the 200k expected with the unemployment rate unchanged after hopes had been for a dip lower (5.0% vs. 4.9% expected). Those of a bullish persuasion might just conclude that this is reflecting an economy getting close to full employment and running out of workers. The bears might argue that with full employment, this cycle is less useful for the economy given the large amount of people who have left the work force. The other big story for energy markets are the tragic wildfires spreading through Canada currently. Over the weekend the fires which have raged through Alberta are now said to have spread to the oil-sands facilities north of Fort McMurray. The chatter is that roughly 1m barrels of production from the region could be impacted however the improving weather conditions overnight are helping to slow the spread for now. WTI is up 1.7% this morning. Traders unsure if the damage done is bad for CAD or balanced by higher oil prices.. There is no data of note this morning .. Good luck