Morning Update – 12/07/2017 – by Arjun Lakhanpal

July 12, 2017 by

Morning all.. Wall St closed marginally lower after a late recovery. Trump’s son seems caught in the Russian issue and this weighed on stocks in the US, the S&P closing slightly lower. This subject and the fact that is took USDJPY lower, saw the Nikkei fall 0.5% and USDJPY remained weak overnight and the dollar generally lower. EUR made a high of 1.1490 and USDJPY a low of 113.31. In the UK we saw rating agency Moody’s: UK credit worthiness under pressure from Brexit-related uncertainty; political, fiscal risks are rising; credibility of BoE should ensure financial stability; FX rate flexibility provides support for exports; expects UK economy to weaken significantly throughout remainder of year; remains unclear whether UK Govt can eventually deliver “reasonably good” outcome for the UK; likelihood of abrupt and damaging exit with not agreement and reversion to WTO rules has increased; baseline scenario sees growth declining to 1.5% this year & 1% next year vs 1.8% in 2016. This kept GBP under some pressure and took EURGBP to .8951. Back in the US we saw the Atlanta Fed GDPNow: US GDP seen at 2.6% in Q2 (2.7% prior estimate). Politico sources: Trump increasingly unlikely to nominate Yellen for second term; National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn leading candidate to succeed Yellen. We have her state of the economy testimony later today which the markets are keenly waiting for. Oil rallied strongly in NY but is unchanged this morning. This morning we have UK Unemployment and wage data along with EU Industrial Production but markets probably on hold to hear what Yellen has to say later and we have the Bank of Canada rate decision later where a hike is almost fully priced…Good luck..