Morning Update – 17/03/2017 – by Arjun Lakhanpal

March 17, 2017 by

Morning all.. Wall St closed a little lower with the S&P down 0.16% in a quiet session and the USD seemed to lag the bounce in US yields again. In Asia we saw the Nikkei down 0.35% as USDJPY failed to rally far from 113.00. EUR held up strongly as well as ECB’s Nowotny (Handelsblatt) said; could raise deposit rate before main refinancing rate; Fed model to finish bond purchases first might not transfer well to Europe; all interest rates also would not have to increase simultaneously nor to the same extent; confirms QE purchases will run until year-end, no reason to act at the moment. However the talk of a policy shift was enough to take EUR higher. GBP is off the highs but still higher since the BoE meeting. BoE’s Forbes (Telegraph): both side of trade off between growth, inflation suggest BoE should increase rates; weak wage growth likely reflects temporary caution around Brexit (NB. Sole voter for an immediate hike yesterday; due to leave MPC on June 30). PWC: UK consumer spending fell to 2% this year from 3% in 2016 and is set to slow sharply over coming years as higher inflation & uncertainty hit. Meanwhile US Treasury’s Mnuchin: extremely productive meeting with Schaeuble; dollar strengthening is good thing in long term; primary focus is on economic growth in the US; US can get to sustainable growth of 3% or more; focused on creating simpler tax system, middle class cut, global compatibility; border adjusted tax is one alternative under study; no decisions on border tax;  Euro affected by many factors, countries, different than single currency; some places where trade agreements need to be more fair, balanced, reexamined; Trump administration does not want to get into trade wars.. This morning we get EU Trade data and little else.. Good luck.