Morning Update – 18/11/15 – 08:23:28

November 18, 2015 by Arjun Lakhanpal

Morning all.. Wall St had a mixed session starting strongly but finishing with the S&P down marginally. In Asia the Nikkei was up fractionally in a very quiet session as traders wait for the Fed minutes tonight. The Market approaches Fed events long USD – The next two days bring a heavy calendar of Fed events. Today sees comments by Powell, Tarullo, Dudley, Mester and Lockhart. Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaks early tomorrow morning and the Minutes of the latest policy meeting are set to be released. Vice-Chairman Fischer adds his voice to the choir on Friday. The key consideration for markets coming into these events may be that investors are long USD. Most do not anticipate a major shift in language from the Fed, which is likely to continue to point to a December lift-off. However, there is some risk that in taking extreme pains to emphasize how flat the expected profile will be Fed rhetoric may disappoint increasingly hawkish market expectations. The overnight milk auction in NZ saw a steep decline in whole milk powder prices, which dropped 11%. This fits with earlier declines in milk futures and suggests ongoing drag on the economy which should add to risk for RBNZ easing early next year. As such, it begs the question why NZD did not weaken in response to the result. NZD ticked lower, but is currently trading close to its closing levels from yesterday. FX overninght was trappedd in very tight ranges. Gold and metals generally fell again and US yields nudged lower and oil is slightly firmer. This morning we have EU Construction output and thats it for the morning session.. Good luck..