Good whatever time of day it is in your neck of the woods,
We would like to wish everyone a Happy Easter and hope that you recharged your batteries and are ready for the last few weeks of trading before you sell in May and go away.
EURUSD – very quiet after the long weekend here. It looks like there has been big movement on the European open but it just took out some stops who were holding long positions and then ticked back up by 30-40 points. In the longer term we like Euro longer but for now expect it to be trading in the 1.37 to 1.39 range. In the longer term we are holding a short EURGBP which has come into the support of 0.82 on the European open and has bounced back about 10 points. With GBP strength and us liking EUR lower we are expecting it to break through the 0.82 and eventually through the next support of 0.8150 and go lower.
GBPUSD – Talking about the sterling it has pushed up against the dollar but still trading in a tight range of 1.67700 to 1.68400. We like it higher but as mentioned above we are banking on the sterling against the euro but if you fancy it higher against the dollar then buy the dips or on the break of 1.68400.
USDJPY – We like a long position here which we entered at 102.35 on the dip to the 100 EMA on the daily chart and 200 EMA on the H4 chart. We believe that people will be re-entering their long dollar positions with the positive data out of the US last week with the overall US recovery and continuation of tapering.
USDCAD – As we said we like dollar strength and we like it against CAD also. We had our pull-back and now that it has once again traded and closed above 1.10, above the 100EMA on the daily chart and with a cross of the 8 and 16 EMA’s we are in the trade now looking to take about 250 points in the next few weeks taking it back to the highs.
AUDUSD – we have bought the dip back down to 0.93 and are still holding this position even though we are not that comfortable with it because our general outlook is a strong US dollar. We have put our stop at the point of entry and we don’t expect it to do much ahead of tomorrow’s CPI and China HSBC Flash PMI data. Both AUD and Chinese data have surprised to the topside recently. RBA will continue to take its que from the data making each print important.
So as you understood we are looking for overall USD strength but will keep and eye out what is happening with Russia and Ukraine.
Have a good week and good luck trading.
If you have any questions or need any advise you can contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org
Here are some links with interesting reading:
This pushes S&P toward 2,000: Jim Paulsen – http://www.cnbc.com/id/101598564
Investors scared to death of stocks: Bullish sign? – http://www.cnbc.com/id/101599140
BOE Inflation Respite Seen Fleeting as Linkers Win – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-21/boe-inflation-respite-seen-fleeting-as-linkers-win.html
Ukraine Accord Nears Collapse as Biden Meets Kiev Leaders – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-22/ukraine-accord-nears-collapse-as-biden-makes-stop-in-kiev.html
European Stocks Rise With Drugmakers as Nickel Climbs – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-21/yen-weaker-as-u-s-stocks-extend-rally-gold-holds-drop.html
China’s economy grows 7.4% in 2014 Q1, better than forecast – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27045527